MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at UFC Fight Night 268's main event between Brandon Moreno and Lone'er Kavanagh.
Brandon Moreno UFC Fight Night 268 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 23-9-2 MMA, 11-6-2 UFC
- Height: 5'7" Age: 32 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 70"
- Last fight:TKO loss to Tatsuro Taira (Dec. 6, 2025)
- Camp: Team Moreno/Fortis MMA (Mexico)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
- + Former 2x UFC flyweight champion
- + Regional MMA titles
- + Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
- + Multiple grappling accolades
- + 5 KO victories
- + 11 submission wins
- + 8 first-round finishes
- + Consistent pace and pressure
- + Improved boxing technique
- + Accurate left hook
- ^ Coming forward or off the counter
- + Hard lead-side kicks
- + Improved wrestling ability
- + Good transitional grappler
- ^ Solid scrambles and submissions
Lone'er Kavanagh UFC Fight Night 268 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 9-1 MMA, 2-1 UFC
- Height: 5'6" Age: 26 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 67"
- Last fight:Knockout loss to Charles Johnson (Aug. 23, 2025)
- Camp: Great Britain Top Team (England)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
- + Kickboxing black belt
- + Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt
- + Amateur MMA title
- + Amateur kickboxing accolades
- + 4 KO victories
- + 1 submission win
- + 2 first-round finishes
- + Fast hooks and crosses
- ^ Coming forward or off the counter
- + Dynamic kicking attacks
- ^ Good leg and bodywork
- + Strong inside the clinch
- ^ Offensively and defensively
- + Good grappling from topside
- ^ Solid ground striker
Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh breakdown: Flyweight fisticuffs
The main event in Mexico City features an impromptu flyweight fight between former champion Brandon Moreno and Lone’er Kavanagh.
A prospect from the Cage Warriors circuit, Kavanagh comes equipped with an incredibly action-friendly skill set.
Hailing from a background in kickboxing and Sanda, Kavanagh operates with full use of his leg dexterity and the classic, almost karate-like bounce in his step. From power kicks from the rear to more sneaky offerings off of his lead side, Kavanagh does decent at keeping kicking initiatives and demonstrates a solid sense for these attacks once establishing his range.
A fast-handed fighter, Kavanagh keeps a hair-trigger on hooks and crosses that he can quickly explode into at the drop of a dime. In fact, Kavanagh’s crosses, in particular, are delivered down the pike with excellent accuracy, both coming forward and off the counter.
But for as impressive as Kavanagh’s offense is, he’ll have to be careful about getting too ‘swaggy’ with his offensive flow and defensive choices alike against a fighter like Moreno.
Initially stepping onto the UFC scene as more of a grapple-first fighter, Moreno has since developed into a more complete and technical striking threat as he’s matured.
At 32 years of age, Moreno continues to display almost unshakable composure, win or lose, almost as if he’s determined to finish the fight stronger than his foe. But when you look beyond the brief, brash moments that allow his character to shine, you can see a more mature countering game at play.
Always a fan of the left hook (both coming forward and off the counter), Moreno does a much better job of variating both his timing and targets, often working them off of a jab. The theme of lead-side savvy travels fluently for the Mexican fighter in the way that Moreno attaches lead-leg kicks to his combinations when feeling in stride.
Moreno also has a knack for navigating extended exchanges, which, in this case, could lead to some grappling opportunities.
Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh point of interest: Potential grappling threats
Considering the potential for chaos on the feet, no one should be shocked if these two end up tangling on the floor.
Despite being more known for his striking stylings, Kavanagh sports some underrated offensive grappling that shouldn’t be slept on.
Although Kavanagh’s speed and athleticism can help him produce solid level-changing takedowns in the open, the Chinese-Irish fighter arguably does his best work from the clinch. Showing good underhook awareness and working well from bodylock positions, Kavanagh appears to be fairly powerful in closed quarters despite his size.
When Kavanagh ends up on topside, the Great Britain Top Team product shows solid positional understanding and fundamentals in the way in which he stays composed and floats with whatever the exchange is offering. And when Kavanagh can establish a solid position, the 26-year-old shows a knack for functional ground-and-pound, something lacking in almost all divisions at the moment.
Luckily for Moreno, the Mexican is far from a slouch in the grappling department.
Starting off his career as more of a jiu-jitsu fighter, Moreno smartly swam toward the wrestling side of things (from an offensive standpoint) after being afforded the chance to train stateside through the UFC’s former developmental program.
Although Moreno was still not beyond being taken down or scoring submissions off his back, he offered plenty of glimpses of improvement during his first run with the promotion.
Moreno has been much more aggressive on the feet during this second stint, but doesn’t seem to be ignoring the other parts of his game. As far as grappling and wrestling scrambles go, Moreno was able to come out on top of stanzas against some of the division’s best grapplers in Jussier Formiga and Askar Askarov (who he clearly beat, in my opinion).
Moreno may have come up short against grappling phenom Tatsuro Taira in his last outing, but it’s important to remember that the former champ had moments of his own prior to being on the wrong end of an arguably premature stoppage from Mark Smith.
Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh odds
The oddsmakers and public are favoring the former champion, listing Moreno -225 and Kavanagh +172 via FanDuel.
Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh prediction, pick
Considering the short-notice nature and clear step up for Kavanagh, it should come as a shock to no one to see him installed as the underdog in this spot.
Moreover, between the factor of high altitude and the fact that we’ve yet to see Kavanagh compete for five frames as a professional, you can make the argument that the betting lines listed above should be even wider.
As someone who is a believer in the skills of Kavanagh, I really wish the UFC picked another fighter to fill this spot. We already saw Moreno kill the confidence of a fighter in desperate need of a pick-me-up spot with Steve Erceg last year, and don’t want Kavanagh to be a victim of the classic “too much, too soon” flyweight push that we’ve seen since Kyoji Horiguchi’s first run with the promotion. But I digress.
As far as tactics go, both fighters offer potent bodywork in a similar fashion – I just feel that Moreno has more to gain.
Not only has Kavanagh been visibly hurt to the body in prior fights, but he’s also shown to slow down a bit and/or feel the pace of a bout, both in victory and defeat. I’m not sure if Moreno will consistently pressure and work the body as he should in this fight, but I do give the former champ the edge in almost all phases, sans kicking range.
I'm a big fan of Kavanagh and wouldn't mind being wrong on this one; it's just always hard to back a fighter after the UFC's already backed them into a proverbial corner. I hope this isn't another case of the promotion rushing (and potentially ruining) a young product by bringing it to market too quickly, but the pick is Moreno to take a competitive but clear win on the scorecards, with a strong possibility of finding a finish in the latter frames.
Prediction: Moreno by decision
Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh start time, how to watch
As the main event, Moreno and Kavanagh are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 10:35 p.m. ET. The fight airs on Paramount+.
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Brandon Moreno vs. Lone'er Kavanagh pick, odds, time: UFC Mexico