FEATURE: Evaluating NNPC’s Ambitious Target Of Becoming Globally Competitive Energy Company

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC Limited) Under the leadership of Engr. Bayo Ojulari, is undergoing a bold and consolidated reform tailored to reposition the company to become a globally competitive engine of industrial growth and national prosperity.

The broader target is to work assiduously to build a globally competitive organisation modelled after Saudi Aramco- a tall ambition that is achievable only through resilience, focus, discipline, and delivery.

For decades, issues of infrastructure neglect, policy inconsistency, security problems, subsidy obligations, financial strain, and governance weaknesses constitute clogs in the wheel of the company’s progress.

The long-running mix of operational, financial, governance, and security problems were structural: the company has historically been expected to operate commercially while also carrying government policy burdens—such as fuel subsidy administration, domestic fuel supply, and revenue transfers to government.

However, with the advent of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and the transition from NNPC Corporation to NNPC Limited, the company has made a structural shift toward a more commercial model and profitability.

Despite the obvious push from the unpatriotic naysayers to keep the company in its formal opaque position to benefit their selfish desires, the current management has vowed to stubbornly move past them and build a company central to catalysing the nation’s economy.

Beyond converting Nigeria’s hydrocarbon wealth into electricity, industry, jobs, and fiscal stability, the current management is bent on building a stronger energy future for Nigeria and beyond. This is evident from the results of its recently released financial statement.

NNPC’s Three Years Financial Performance

NNPC Ltd’s reported profitability has improved sharply since 2023. The company’s reported Profit After Tax (PAT) rose from ₦3.297 trillion in 2023 to roughly ₦7.2 trillion in 2025—more than double in two years.

NNPC reported profit after tax of approximately ₦3.297 trillion for 2023, compared with ₦2.548 trillion in 2022. That represented an increase of about 29%.

NNPC also reported 2025 EBITDA of ₦18 trillion (up 22%), operating cash flow of ₦12.8 trillion (up 16%) and a dividend of ₦5.8 trillion (up 35%).

Average crude oil and condensate production was 1.77 million barrels per day, and gas output averaged 7.2 billion standard cubic feet per day. Remittances to the government continued to rise.

Context matters here. Part of the 2024 revenue jump reflects higher naira prices after exchange rate depreciation and changes in the domestic petroleum market, so the 88% increase does not mean NNPC sold 88% more oil or products.

The company also recorded energy security expenses, the petrol under recovery that arises when regulated prices fall below import or supply cost, of ₦4.8 trillion in 2023 and ₦7.1 trillion in 2024.

Refineries And The IPO: One Story, Two Chapters

NNPC’s refinery rehabilitation plan and its proposed initial public offering (IPO) are closely linked. The company is trying to show it can run profitably, publish credible accounts and attract private capital before any share sale.

Speaking on Tuesday in Abuja, the Group Chief Executive (GCEO) of the NNPC Ltd., Engr. Bayo Ojulari stated that the old quick fix approach was abandoned because contractors were paid without their rewards being tied to performance, a leakage he says was stopped in 2024.

Nigeria’s three refineries, in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna, have a combined nameplate capacity of about 445,000 barrels per day. Reports in 2026 put cumulative rehabilitation spending at roughly $2.39 billion, without consistent output to show for it.

He said the new approach is a technical equity partnership, under which competent operators with a record of running refineries and petrochemical plants take equity and share the risk, which he said will ensure sustainability.

According to him, more than 30 engineers working for prospective partners reportedly completed about three months of intrusive on site due diligence, which pointed to the need for technology upgrades rather than a simple restoration of old designs. Interest has been reported in Port Harcourt and Warri, while Kaduna is not yet at the same stage.

In April 2026, NNPC signed an MoU with Chinese companies including Sanjiang Chemical and Xingcheng (Fuzhou) Industrial Park Operation and Management Co. An MoU is not a final investment or operating agreement, and commercial, technical, financing and governance terms remain to be agreed.

Where the IPO Stands

The PIA converted NNPC into a limited liability company owned by the Federal Government through the Ministry of Finance Incorporated and the Ministry of Petroleum Incorporated, with eventual listing in mind. Reuters reported that the Act required NNPC to pursue an IPO, though implementation has been delayed.

NNPC has begun a listing readiness process, using consultants and internal reviews to find gaps in governance, finance, reporting, valuation, assets, liabilities and corporate structure. As of late September 2026, no IPO date has been fixed, and none of the three refineries has shown sustained profitable operations.

Management can prepare the company, but shareholders decide whether and when to list. Any offer would cover NNPC Limited as a whole, not just the refineries.

Crude Output Recovers As Theft Declines

NNPC’s performance is closely tied to national production because it participates in joint ventures and production sharing contracts, markets government crude, manages key pipelines and terminals, and works with security agencies against theft.

Theft and sabotage drove national output down to around 960,000 barrels per day in 2022. NNPC estimated losses of about 470,000 barrels per day at the time, roughly $700 million a month at prevailing prices. Because operators often shut wells and pipelines after a breach for safety and spill control, the production lost can exceed the volume physically stolen.

Crude theft involves illegal connections to pipelines and flow lines, diversion through barges, vessels or makeshift hoses, illegal artisanal refining of stolen crude, sabotage meant to conceal theft or pressure operators, false metering and volume manipulation along the chain from production point to terminal.

NNPC credits an integrated energy security effort in the Niger Delta, including pipeline surveillance, collaboration with security agencies, host community engagement and better reconciliation between crude produced and volumes received at terminals.

By early 2025, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) said theft had fallen to about 5,000 barrels per day, with oil output near 1.75 million barrels per day and gas near 7 billion standard cubic feet per day. By September 2025, NUPRC reportedly put losses at about 10,000 barrels per day for January to July and said full pipeline availability had been achieved for the first time in two decades.

Ojulari says community based surveillance combined with security agencies lifted availability on major pipelines from below 10 percent in 2023 to near 100 percent, with reconciliation factors now in the 90s. Attention is shifting to smaller lines and wellheads where intrusions persist, using wellhead cages and fibre optic intrusion detection.

Why The Gains Remain Fragile

The recovery is meaningful but not guaranteed. Reported crude and condensate output moved from 1.67 million barrels per day in January 2025 to 1.56 million in March, recovered to nearly 1.69 million in July, then fell to 1.58 million in October.

The main vulnerabilities are: Long, ageing and hard to monitor pipeline networks, Rivers, creeks and remote terrain in the Niger Delta, Economic incentives from high crude prices and weak local livelihoods, Organised criminal networks and possible complicity along the value chain, Delayed maintenance and limited metering or real time monitoring, Community grievances over pollution, livelihoods and revenue sharing, and Refinery and export outages that can force producers to shut in wells even when theft falls.

Figures also differ because some publications cite crude only while others include condensate. NNPC’s numbers generally combine the two, so they should not be compared directly with crude only OPEC or regulator data.

Targets, Gas And The Road To 2030

NNPC has set targets of two million barrels of crude oil per day by 2027 and three million by 2030. Gas production is projected at 10 billion cubic feet per day by 2027 and 12 billion by 2030, backed by more than $60 billion of investment across the energy value chain. Ojulari says the signing of Bonga North is part of this push, and that the resources and people exist but technology and financing must be brought in.

On gas infrastructure, he says welding on the main line of the Ajaokuta Kaduna Kano pipeline is complete, with tie ins under way. The OB3 gas pipeline, which faced challenges for years, was completed this year, linking gas sources to markets and supporting industrialisation.

He also said: NNPC still supplies crude to Dangote Refinery in naira under the approved government arrangement, and also in dollars, because its own obligations such as rigs and joint venture cash calls are settled in dollars.

The PIA has strengthened the company’s commercial base and positioned it to operate without reliance on federal budget allocations.

More than 1,000 newly employed professionals completed a one year internship and training programme and have been deployed across the company. Women hold more than 23 percent of leadership positions, against a global industry average of 17 percent.

The Bottom Line

Output rose from about 960,000 barrels per day in 2022 to an average of around 1.71 million in 2025, with a 1.84 million peak. That shows how much value lies in curbing theft and restoring pipeline availability.

Lasting progress, however, needs more than armed security. It depends on modern pipelines, accurate metering from wellhead to terminal, transparent crude accounting, swift prosecution of theft networks, credible environmental remediation and host community arrangements that make legal oil and gas activity more rewarding than sabotage.

Profits are rising, but the Aramco ambition will be judged by working refineries, steady output and a listing that investors trust.

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